Global Electricity Mid-Year Insights 2025: Trends and Outlook

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Renewables have officially overtaken coal in the global power mix for the first time on record. According to Ember’s Global Electricity Mid-Year Insights 2025 report, clean sources are now driving the majority of global electricity growth, reshaping emissions and generation patterns worldwide. The report analyzes electricity generation data from 88 countries covering 93% of global demand.

Global electricity demand rose by 369 TWh (+2.6%) in the first half of 2025, but solar and wind together added 403 TWh, meeting 109% of new demand. As a result, fossil fuel generation declined by 27 TWh (-0.3%), and power-sector emissions plateaued despite higher consumption.

This article summarizes Ember’s key findings from the first half of 2025, drawing on its monthly electricity data and analysis.

Solar breaks records across major markets

Solar generation surged by 306 TWh (+31%) in H1 2025, the fastest absolute growth on record. Its global share rose from 6.9% to 8.8%. Solar alone covered 83% of worldwide demand growth.

China accounted for 55% of the global increase (168 TWh), followed by the United States at 14% (44 TWh), the European Union at 12% (37 TWh), India at 5.6% (17 TWh), and Brazil at 3.2% (10 TWh).

Twenty-nine countries now generate more than 10% of their electricity from solar, up from 22 in H1 2024 and only 11 in H1 2021. Hungary led with nearly 30% solar share, ahead of Greece and the Netherlands, both exceeding 25%. Pakistan saw the largest four-year jump—from 4.4% to 21.9%—driven by rapid rooftop adoption in response to high grid prices.

Capacity additions reached a record 380 GW in the first six months, 64% higher than the 232 GW added in H1 2024. China contributed 67% of new installations. A surge in May, ahead of new pricing rules effective June 1, accelerated the build-out.

Japan and Vietnam were outliers, with solar generation falling marginally. Japan's decline was partly attributed to record-high curtailment.

Wind Grows Steadily but Trails Solar

Wind generation increased by 97 TWh (+7.7%), lifting its global share to 9.2%. This was slower than the 106 TWh (+9.1%) gain in H1 2024. Solar generation (1,303 TWh) is now close to overtaking wind (1,365 TWh) in absolute terms.

China accounted for 82% of global wind growth, adding 79 TWh (+16%)—more than double the global average rate.

Wind output fell in the European Union due to unfavorable conditions from January to April, reducing the bloc's wind share from 19% to 17%. The United States saw wind generation rise by only 5 TWh (+2%), well below the prior year's 19 TWh increase. Declines in February, April, May, and June were attributed to weaker wind speeds.

Renewables Overtake Coal as Fossil Output Declines

Renewables grew by 363 TWh (+7.7%) to reach 5,072 TWh, claiming a 34.3% share of global electricity. Coal fell by 31 TWh (-0.6%) to 4,896 TWh and dropped to 33.1%. This is the first time renewables have exceeded coal generation on record.

Gas generation declined by 6.3 TWh (-0.2%), maintaining a 23% share.

Hydro generation decreased by 42 TWh (-2%), lowering its share to 13.9% from 14.6% in H1 2024. The European Union (-33 TWh), China (-11 TWh), Russia (-13 TWh), Turkey (-12 TWh), and Brazil (-10 TWh) saw the largest declines due to drought.

Nuclear output rose by 33 TWh (+2.5%), holding a 9.1% share. Growth was concentrated in China (+24 TWh), South Korea (+7.9 TWh), Japan (+5.7 TWh), India (+3.5 TWh), Canada (+5.2 TWh), and France (+4.4 TWh).

For context on the technologies driving this shift, Dyme's primer explains core terms at What is renewable energy.

Regional Shifts: China and India Cut Coal, US and EU Rise

China met all its 198 TWh (+4.2%) demand growth with clean generation. Coal fell by 56 TWh (-2%), and emissions declined by 46 MtCO₂ (-1.7%). Solar’s share in China rose from 8.4% to 11.5%, while wind climbed from 11% to 12%. Twelve-month rolling fossil generation shows signs of plateauing, though weather variability makes it unclear if China has reached a definitive peak.

India’s clean sources grew by 40 TWh (+20%), over three times its 12 TWh (+1.3%) demand increase. Coal fell by 22 TWh (-3.1%), cutting emissions by 24 MtCO₂ (-3.6%). Milder weather in April–June reduced cooling demand. Ember estimates that if heatwaves had matched H1 2024, demand would have risen by ~3.5% instead. Solar generation rose a record 17 TWh (+25%), lifting its share to 9.2%, while wind added 11 TWh (+29%), reaching 5.1%.

The United States moved in the opposite direction. Demand rose by 76 TWh (+3.6%), but solar and wind added only 49 TWh, covering 65% of the increase. Coal generation surged 51 TWh (+17%), replacing gas, which fell 34 TWh (-3.9%). Higher gas prices drove the switch. Emissions rose 33 MtCO₂ (+4.3%). Data-center expansion and industrial reshoring are expected to sustain demand growth, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

In the European Union, solar grew 37 TWh (+24%) to a 14% share. June marked the first time solar became the bloc’s largest electricity source at 22%. Wind fell 21 TWh (-8.5%) and hydro 33 TWh (-17%) due to poor weather and drought, forcing gas generation up 25 TWh (+14%) and coal up 1.4 TWh (+1.1%). Emissions increased 13 MtCO₂ (+4.8%).

Emissions plateau globally despite demand growth

Global power-sector emissions fell marginally by 12 MtCO₂ (-0.2%) to 6,963 MtCO₂ in H1 2025. Without solar and wind growth, Ember estimates emissions would have risen by 236 MtCO₂ (+3.9%), equivalent to almost all emissions from Africa in the same period.

The four largest emitters—China, India, the EU, and the U.S.—account for 64% of global power-sector CO₂ and 63% of electricity demand.

For companies tracking disclosure and procurement tied to clean electricity, Dyme's CSRD timeline explainer outlines how reporting rules connect to energy choices at CSRD timeline for US companies.

Grid integration challenges emerge in high-solar markets

Japan reported record-high solar curtailment in H1 2025, contributing to a marginal decline in generation despite continued capacity additions. Vietnam also saw solar output fall slightly by 0.5 TWh (-1.7%).

Weather played a net-positive role globally. Solar radiation improved output by 4% across 25 countries covering 91% of worldwide solar generation. Belgium (+26%), the Netherlands (+21%), the UK (+20%), Germany (+15%), and France (+10%) saw the largest weather-driven improvements.

The Ember report draws on monthly electricity data from 88 countries representing 93% of global demand and includes estimated changes for the remaining generation. Methodology relies on national transmission operators, statistical agencies, and aggregators such as ENTSO-E. Some recent months are estimated using Ember's generation forecasting model.

The full report is available at Ember's Global Electricity Mid-Year Insights 2025.

What to watch through year-end

Solar and wind are now growing fast enough to meet rising electricity needs. This suggests fossil fuel demand in the power sector is nearing its peak.

Key indicators through year-end include curtailment rates in high-solar markets, reserve margins during extreme weather, interconnection progress in congested regions, and the pace of battery-storage deployments alongside new renewables.

Dyme's analysis of solar economics explains why the technology remains compelling despite shifting price patterns at Solar energy economic benefits. Additional data and methodology notes are available from the International Energy Agency at IEA Electricity Market Report and the Energy Institute at Energy Institute Statistical Review.

Through its sustainable travel platform, Dyme supports 40 MW of solar projects planned for development that will produce 56,765 MWh annually—enough to power 48,800 homes and avoid 42,972 tons of CO₂ each year. Over a 30-year lifespan, these projects will save communities approximately $150 million in utility bills, creating funds for better facilities, more teachers, and more doctors while supporting 980 job-years in construction and operations. Learn more at Dyme Impact Results.